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Mixed Performance Ahead For Credit Sector
During the past quarter, large banks' credit spreads widened more than the index by approximately 10 to 20 basis points. This sell-off was driven by numerous factors including: potentially more restrictive capital requirements, the looming settlement from prior mortgage and foreclosure practices, the possibility of a weakening economy, and comments from the rating agencies about potential downgrades because of the loss of "too big to fail" status. One rating agency mentioned that some banks could even be lowered three to five notches when TBTF is removed. Compounding all these domestic issues was the looming possibility of a Greek sovereign debt default.Overall, while many of these concerns are valid, we feel that they are accurately reflected in the relatively wide spreads of banks. More restrictive capital requirements on large banks would reduce overall profitability, but they would also serve to reduce the risks faced by bondholders. Although the economy has shown some signs of slowing, banks have not seen an increase in nonperforming loans and in fact have been able to reduce the amount of the nonperforming loans. Banks have also been steadily increasing their capital positions. Citigroup, for example, has raised its Tier 1 common ratio more than 200 basis points in the past year to 11.3%. We expect banks to continue building their capital ratios and should have little difficulty absorbing the effects of a slowing economy.
Analysis of a report from the Bank for International Settlements indicated that U.S. bank exposure to Greece totals $30 billion-$40 billion. That number, however, does not account for hedges or other security that the banks have in place to protect that exposure. We believe the actual exposure is a lot less. The real concern for U.S. banks would be if a Greek default led to a contagion panic across Europe leading to another credit crisis in the U.S. Although we think the probability of such an event is extremely low, we continue to monitor the situation closely.
Without TBTF status, it appears that rating agencies would rate big banks like Citigroup ( C ) and Bank of America ( BAC ) in the mid- to high BBB area, down from their low AA/high A current ratings. We, however, rate both banks at A-. Five-year credit default swaps on Citi and B of A are about 150 and 170 basis points, respectively. It is clear to us that the market already discounts the TBTF status, and though we expect some increase in CDS should the TBTF status be more explicitly removed, we doubt that it would have a meaningful long-term impact.
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Letting the property go to foreclosure is a decision that has ramifications on your credit for years to come. There are many risks attached to short selling - including phantom income and bill collectors hounding you for the shortfall. And banks are
This sell-off was driven by numerous factors including: potentially more restrictive capital requirements, the looming settlement from prior mortgage and foreclosure practices, the possibility of a weakening economy, and comments from the rating
A list of things to think about when contemplating foreclosure. » Shorter time frame for personal liability from lender compared to short sale. » "Free rent" while foreclosure process goes through the system, giving financially strapped homeowners time
Mitchell's legal woes, which have grown over the past several years to include lawsuits and foreclosures on at least three properties he owns, began in 2009. He was disbarred that year for his handling of real estate transactions that allowed a
Repossessions, charge-offs for bills never paid, liens, bankruptcies, foreclosures and court judgments against you for money owed. Like other areas of your life, your credit history requires maintenance. Even if you pay your debts on time,
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